The U.S. restaurant industry is set to reach $1.5 trillion in sales by the end of 2025, with an estimated 200,000 new jobs bringing the total workforce to 15.9 million, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report.
Industry Growth and Employment Outlook
The report indicates that more than 80% of restaurant operators expect their sales in 2025 to be equal to or exceed 2024 levels. The industry remains the nation’s second-largest private-sector employer, with job growth continuing despite ongoing challenges related to labor costs and workforce retention.
Shifts in Consumer Dining Preferences
Restaurant operators are focusing on increasing in-person dining, with 90% of fine dining and 87% of casual dining establishments identifying it as a priority. Consumer demand aligns with this trend, with a majority expressing interest in dining out more frequently if financial conditions permit.
Additionally, there is a growing interest in experience-based dining. According to the report, 70% of consumers showed interest in tasting events, 52% in exclusive chef-led dinners, and 50% in restaurant-hosted cooking classes.
Defining Value in Dining
The concept of value is shifting beyond price, with cleanliness, hospitality, and overall dining experience emerging as key factors influencing consumer choices. The report highlights that loyalty programs are becoming increasingly relevant, with 70% of participating operators citing them as beneficial for increasing customer traffic. Among consumers, 61% of delivery customers, 54% of quick-service patrons, and 41% of table-service diners indicated that rewards programs influence their dining decisions.
Off-Premises Dining Trends
Off-premises dining, including takeout and delivery, continues to play a significant role in restaurant revenue. Delivery remains particularly popular, with 82% of consumers— including 89% of millennials—expressing a preference for ordering more frequently if finances allow. Takeout remains a favored option, with 67% of Gen Z and 64% of millennials considering it essential to their dining habits.
Challenges and Industry Response
Despite positive growth projections, restaurant operators continue to face challenges, particularly rising food and labor costs. Many operators report that workforce recruitment and retention remain key concerns in 2025.
“The fundamentals of the restaurant industry are strong, and operators are optimistic about the year ahead,” said Michelle Korsmo, President & CEO of the National Restaurant Association. “Industry sales are expected to grow more than four percent this year, and employment should reach nearly 16 million jobs. That growth will come from restaurant operators finding the balance of value and experience for consumers and innovating breakthrough efficiency in their operations.”
Outlook for 2025
As the industry moves forward, restaurant operators are expected to focus on balancing affordability with enhanced dining experiences while maintaining operational efficiency. The demand for both in-person and off-premises dining is projected to shape strategies throughout the year.
With strong consumer interest and ongoing innovation in service models, the restaurant industry is positioned for continued expansion despite economic and operational challenges.
